Following the second quarter GDP growth data announced by TURKSTAT today, the world’s leading investment banks also revised their 2021 GDP growth forecasts for Turkey upwards.
JPMorgan raised its 2021 GDP growth forecast for the Turkish economy from 6.8 percent to 8.4 percent. Keeping its growth forecast for 2022 as 3.4 percent, JPMorgan also emphasized that the risk for these forecasts is upside.
Goldman Sachs also increased its 2021 GDP growth forecast for Turkey from 7.5 percent to 9.5 percent.
On the other hand, Moody’s had increased its 2021 growth forecast for Turkey from 5 percent to 6 percent before the second quarter growth was announced.
After the strong growth in the second quarter, economists’ 2021 year-end growth expectations are shaped between 8 and 9.5 percent. Although the growth in the second quarter was limited to 0.9 percent compared to the first quarter, as well as the slowdown in industry and agriculture, pointing to a slight loss of momentum in the growth in the last two quarters of this year, it is expected that the year-end expectations will be met with the recovery in the services sector. With its 21.7% growth, the Turkish economy managed to be among the three fastest growing countries in the world in the second quarter.