Celal Sengor Speaks Clearly About the Istanbul Earthquake: ‘It’s Just Around the Corner…’

Making statements about the expected Istanbul earthquake, Prof. Dr. Celal Sengor said, “It is still talked about by the earthquake community in the world; it is not possible to predict an earthquake, but it is in the offing.” Referring to the criticism that “the military was used too late” after the earthquakes in Kahramanmaras, Sengor said, “They killed the army”.

After the 7.7 and 7.6 magnitude earthquakes in Kahramanmaras, the eyes were turned to the expected Istanbul earthquake.

Finally, Turkish academic, scientist and geologist Prof. Dr. Celal Sengor commented on the possible Istanbul earthquake as “on the verge”.

Speaking to T24’s Cansu Camlibel, Sengor said, “But we cannot pronounce a date. Not possible. It is still spoken by the whole earthquake community in the world; It is not possible to predict the earthquake in advance,” he said.

Referring to whether there is a correlation between the North Anatolian Fault and the Marmara Fault, Sengor said, “There is, directly. The Marmara Fault is the continuation of the North Anatolian Fault.”

Sengor, Prof. Cenk Yaltirak’s analysis rejected the thesis that there was a historical gap of approximately 20-30 years between the rupture of these two faults.


Şengör answered the question, “Why did you become vigilant after the Gölcük Earthquake in 1999 and you started to express the prediction that the earthquake that would hit Istanbul is very close” as follows:

“Because a stress calculation was made here. A maximum stress based on the Coulomb Theory was determined just south of Istanbul. If you look at the time intervals since Byzantium, a big earthquake hits Istanbul approximately every 250 years. Or Tom Parsons did. According to this, the analysis made in 2000, which includes both historical earthquakes and Coulomb theory, shows the probability calculation that I have told you. There is no more data to put on this.”


Answering the question, “Did the state start to look at this issue in a different way after the 2019 Silivri earthquake,” Sengor said, “No, he does not. He does not have a man.”

Sengor continued:

“Quality. Qualified geoscientists are very few in Turkey. It’s as big as the fingers of a hand. For example, men like me don’t want to work with the state for fear that something will happen to them. Despite everything and everything, there is an institution I trust, the Turkish Armed Forces.”


Şengör said that due to incompetence, there could be no studies on the earthquake, and asked, “What can you do in such a short time?”

Celal Sengor also said that we will experience the Istanbul earthquake under today’s conditions.


Referring to the criticism that “the military was used too late” after the earthquakes in Kahramanmaras, Sengör used the following statements:

“They killed the army. Those Sledgehammers case or something, what a disgrace. It was said that we didn’t give them what they wanted, remember! Everyone in the army was afraid of each other.”

Source: T24 – Cansu Camlibel

Ece Nagihan

Hi, I'm Ece. I am a writer for Expat Guide Turkey and I strive to create the best content for you. To contact me, you can send an e-mail to Happy reading!

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