OCTOBER INFLATION GAP HITS 27 POINTS – TÜİK REPORTS 32.87%, ENAG REPORTS 60%

Consumer Price Debate: How Does the Massive Data Discrepancy Between the Official Agency and the Independent Group Impact Economic Confidence?

ANKARA, Turkey – The annual inflation figures, one of the most critical economic data points in Turkey, have been released for October 2025 by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) and the independent research group, the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), showing a huge discrepancy. As the October Inflation Gap reached record levels, this massive divergence between the two institutions has once again raised questions regarding economic data credibility.

📊 THE NUMBERS AND THE VAST CHASM

The annual consumer inflation (CPI) figures announced for the October 2025 period are as follows:

• TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute): Annual consumer inflation was reported as 32.87%.
• ENAG (Inflation Research Group): Annual consumer inflation was calculated as 60.00%.

These figures reveal that the gap between the two institutions is approximately 27.13 percentage points. Therefore, the perceived difference between the price increases felt by citizens and the officially reported rate is deepening.

❓ REASONS FOR THE DATA DISCREPANCY

The continuous and significant difference between ENAG and TÜİK stems primarily from variations in methodology and basket weights:

• Methodology Difference: TÜİK typically collects prices on specific days of the month and from standardized sales points. However, ENAG argues that it captures faster price changes by collecting data daily from online platforms and a wider range of retailers.
• Basket Weighting: According to ENAG, the consumption basket used by TÜİK does not accurately reflect real-life spending patterns, particularly the weighting given to food, rent, and essential goods. Furthermore, during high inflation periods, the lower weighting of volatile items like food and energy in the TÜİK basket leads to a significantly lower official figure.
• Impact on Wages: High inflation severely strains the purchasing power of low and middle-income earners. Consequently, such a high October Inflation Gap directly impacts the determination of wage increases and social benefits.

📉 ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE AND CONSEQUENCES

This striking October Inflation Gap is not merely a technical statistical problem; it creates a crisis of confidence for economic policymakers and markets alike.

• Market Reaction: High figures announced by independent bodies erode the confidence of markets and investors in the official data. As a result, higher risk premiums are demanded when making future pricing and investment decisions.
• Social Justice: Labor unions and pensioners criticize using TÜİK’s lower figures as the basis for wage and salary increases. For this reason, demands for the legal recognition of the actual inflation felt by citizens are mounting.

The widening of the October Inflation Gap continues to be a major challenge for the Turkish economy regarding transparency and data reliability.