Experts Warn: Hike May Be Lower Than Last Year; Unions Demand Regulation Change And A Welfare Share
ANKARA, Turkey – The countdown has begun for the minimum wage negotiations, the hottest topic on Turkey’s economic agenda. As December approaches, the 2026 Minimum Wage Determination Commission will convene to set the pay rate for the new year. However, this year’s marathon is overshadowed by the labor side’s historic decision to boycott the meetings, citing fundamental issues with the commission’s structure.
🚫 The Primary Crisis: Labor Confederations Boycott
The Commission traditionally consists of representatives from labor (TÜRK-İŞ and HAK-İŞ), employers (TİSK), and the government. Yet, this year, the largest labor confederations, TÜRK-İŞ and HAK-İŞ, have unequivocally stated they will not take their seats at the table.
- TÜRK-İŞ and HAK-İŞ Stance: TÜRK-İŞ President Ergün Atalay and HAK-İŞ President Mahmut Arslan argue that the current Commission regulation fails to protect workers’ rights and that the structure itself is undemocratic. Arslan stated sharply, “We cannot continue down this road with this Minimum Wage Determination Commission.”
- The Essence of the Demand: The labor side’s boycott is not merely a protest; it is a clear demand for the government to change the regulation and establish a more equitable structure for the commission. This situation means the government may have to decide unilaterally, potentially compromising the legitimacy of the final figure.
📊 EXPERT ANALYSIS: THE FORMULA OF TARGETED INFLATION
As December approaches, financial advisors have begun outlining probable increase scenarios to Milliyet, stating that the central bank’s targets will form the basis of the wage hike.
- Yılmaz’s Formula: Social Security Advisor Emin Yılmaz anticipates that the formula used last year will be applied again this year. According to this, the raise will not be based on the high realized inflation figure (31%-33%) but rather on the projected low inflation target for the following year (CBRT forecast: 13%-19%).
- Economic Pressure: This formula aligns with the government’s policy of trying to break the wage-inflation spiral. However, this policy ignores the actual loss of purchasing power experienced by workers due to high actual inflation, leading to massive backlash from the labor sector.
- The Welfare Share Battle: Yılmaz emphasized that even if the calculation is based on target inflation, “a welfare share must absolutely be given.” This welfare share (refah payı) is the key battleground for unions, as it aims to compensate workers for the real gap between the low official figures and the high felt inflation.
🗓️ COMMISSION PROCESS AND GOVERNMENT’S ROLE
The 2026 Minimum Wage Determination Commission will convene multiple times throughout December, typically consisting of three or four meetings.
- Meeting Structure: The Commission traditionally meets three or four times, announcing its decision in the final days of the year.
- The Final Decision: If the labor and employer sides fail to reach a consensus, the final decision is determined by the government’s vote, which acts as the tiebreaker. This year, due to the labor side’s boycott, the government’s decision carries even greater political weight.
📉 CONCLUSION: THE FINANCIAL AND POLITICAL BURDEN OF THE WAGE
The decision made by the 2026 Minimum Wage Determination Commission is more than just a salary adjustment; it is a significant political statement demonstrating Turkey’s commitment to its anti-inflation goals and its stance on social equity. The government must find a difficult balance between adhering to its goal of lowering inflation and compensating millions of workers for their loss of welfare.
