Millions Await: How Much Will The 2026 Minimum Wage Hike Be? Two Scenarios Emerge

Social Security Experts Weigh In: Why Last Year’s 30% Increase Formula May Not Apply This Year

ANKARA, Turkey – The Minimum Wage Determination Commission is set to convene in December to finalize the 2026 minimum wage, a figure that directly impacts the livelihoods of over 7 million workers in Turkey. As millions of employees and employers eagerly await the announcement of the 2026 Minimum Wage Hike percentage, social security experts have begun evaluating the likely scenarios.

🗓️ CURRENT FIGURES AND EXPECTATIONS

The Commission’s meetings, held throughout December, will ultimately determine the new gross and net figures for the minimum wage, which will be valid for the entirety of 2026.

• Current Net Wage: The 2025 minimum wage was set at a gross 26,005.50 TL, translating to a net 22,104.67 TL after deductions. The increase applied last year was 30%.
• Expected Announcement: The new minimum wage is typically announced by the Presidency in the final days of the year, usually during the last week of December.

❓ EXPERT ANALYSIS: HAS THE OLD FORMULA FAILED?

Social Security Expert Ali Duman told Hürriyet that while providing a definitive number now is difficult, analysts must review the formula used in previous periods.

Duman pointed out that past increases were determined by taking the average of current inflation and projected inflation. However, he suggests that this specific formula might not be applied this year, given the current economic environment and government targets.

📊 LIKELY SCENARIOS FOR THE 2026 MINIMUM WAGE HIKE

Based on expert assessments and the targets set in the Medium-Term Program (MTP), two primary scenarios are emerging for the 2026 Minimum Wage Hike:

Scenario 1: Application of Last Year’s Formula (Expected Hike: Around 23%)

• Data: The government’s projected inflation target in the MTP for the year-end is 28.5%.
• Calculation: If the average formula used last year is applied, the increase percentage would need to remain around 23%.
• Estimated New Net Wage: Under this scenario, the net minimum wage could rise to approximately 27,188 TL (23% increase on the current net 22,104.67 TL).
• Expert View: Duman noted that this formula, based on inflation targets, points toward a lower hike, possibly aimed at protecting employment, but warned it might be discarded.

Scenario 2: Prioritizing Employment and Fighting Inflation (Expected Hike: 18%–20% Range)

• Core Focus: Experts believe the government may prioritize preventing a “wage-inflation spiral” and maintaining employment stability this year. Therefore, authorities might avoid high wage increases that could fuel further inflation.
• Justification for Hike: In this scenario, the minimum wage increase would be deliberately kept within the range of 18% to 20%, ensuring it does not exceed MTP targets.

📈 THE SOCIAL PRESSURE FACTOR

Negotiations for the 2026 Minimum Wage Hike will be shaped not only by technical calculations but also by strong demands from labor unions and significant social pressure.

• Union Demands: Despite the low MTP targets, labor unions are preparing to demand an increase at least above the official inflation figure (TÜİK 32.87%), potentially pushing for at least 40%. Consequently, this will intensify the pressure on the Commission.

In conclusion, the Commission’s final decision will balance the goal of preventing inflation driven by rising wages against the crucial need to protect the purchasing power of millions of workers.