When and Where Will The Next Earthquake Be?

When and Where Will The Next Earthquake Be?

After the 7.7 and 7.6 earthquakes in Kahramanmaraş, in which more than 30 thousand people lost their lives in Turkey and Syria, US scientists developed a new earthquake prediction model. According to the researchers’ statement, the new model can predict when and where the next big earthquake might occur more accurately than previous methods. The method also considers the order and timing of previous earthquakes, rather than focusing only on the mean time between past earthquakes.

US scientists developed a new earthquake prediction model after the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquakes.

Developed by a team of seismologists and statisticians at Northwestern University, the model also takes into account the order and timing of previous earthquakes, rather than focusing solely on the mean time between past earthquakes. This method also explains why earthquakes tend to come in clusters.


The scientists said the faults have ‘long-term memory’, which means that an earthquake does not release all the stress that builds up on the fault over time. The remaining tension on the fault could cause another earthquake after one major earthquake, the researchers explained.

However, it was previously assumed that large earthquakes on faults are relatively regular and that the next earthquake will occur at approximately the same time as the previous two earthquakes.

However, Northwestern University researchers stated that earthquakes can come earlier or later than expected, and the model they developed can predict this situation more accurately than previous methods.

Seth Stein, William Deering Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences, said: “Considering the entire history of earthquakes, rather than just the average over time and the time since the last one, will be very helpful in predicting when future earthquakes will occur, for example, when a team will play a game. Trying to understand how he has a chance to win: “You don’t just look at his last game and his long-term average. Check out his other recent matches. Now we can do the same for earthquakes,” he said.

On the other hand, the team’s research focused on investigating plate boundary processes and deformation within the lithosphere using a variety of techniques, including seismology, marine geophysics, and space-based geodesy (science that measures geometry, gravity, and spatial orientation). Earth and other astronomical bodies such as planets).

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“Large earthquakes don’t occur every hour. Sometimes we see a few large earthquakes occurring in relatively short periods of time, and then they happen for many years with nothing. Traditional models don’t account for this on fault lines,” said study co-author James S. Neely. aforementioned.

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On the other hand, Turkey is trying to heal the wounds of two major earthquake disasters. The first is 7.7, the second is 7.6 magnitude earthquake; It caused great destruction in Kahramanmaraş, Kilis, Diyarbakır, Adana, Osmaniye, Gaziantep, Şanlıurfa, Adıyaman, Malatya and Hatay. On the 8th day of search and rescue efforts, the loss of life rose to 29,605.

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At least 4,500 people have been killed and thousands injured in Syria, Al Jazeera reported.

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Gül Demirci

Hi, I'm Gul. I am a writer for Expat Guide Turkey and I strive to create the best content for you. To contact me, you can send an e-mail to Happy reading!

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